India’s gradual rise into a leading economy has exacerbated rivalries.
Money, money, money / Always sunny / In the world of the rich
The ambitious aspects triggered by the Modi government from the start require significant funding. Especially since the approach is holistic and spread over all sectors. All being awakened to their potential, perhaps for the first time. We have stopped calling ourselves poor, as if to excuse all faults. There is still massive welfarism, but it has been stripped of corruption and developed a reformist glow. However, “povertarism” as pornographic Marxist glory has disappeared.
Today every attempt is made to try to balance the books. Income generation is important. This is why the NHAI, furiously building expensive and world-class highways, aims to increase toll revenues from Rs 40,000 crore to Rs 1.5 million crore per year.
What we must aim for, however, is excess income in all of our productive endeavors, which can be directed in any direction necessary. And the best money, as the “borrow and spend” disasters around the world remind us, is money earned. So far, seven years later, the GDP is much lower than that of the Vajpayee years. But public spending on modernization, infrastructure, social protection, military machinery, railways, ports, airports, education, health and culture have increased. These things, mostly investments, have a way of paying generously in the medium term.
There is a constant increase in foreign direct investment (FDI). But we need China’s three-decade growth rate from 1980 onwards. Fueled not so much by exports as theirs, but inflated domestic demand. Exports are currently penalized by weak growth in purchasing countries and pressure on margins. Still, manufacturing sideways shifts are promising. The timeliness of global disenchantment with China can do a lot for us if we work with a will.
The growing bipolarity between America and China is now an established reality. As they clash, the Chinese challenger has subverted or ignored most of the existing institutional mechanisms, the UN, the G7, the G20, many other forums, various protocols and agreements, international law. China, especially with regard to the East and South China Seas, various territorial and border disputes in its vicinity, says that I do not accept international laws and positions. It seeks more to dominate the world with advanced military bases and a growing Blue Water Navy backed by its other military weapons. Until recently, he prided himself on his ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy to counter all objections, although this was toned down somewhat after Covid.
America under Biden was also surprisingly decisive. It has already withdrawn missiles from Saudi Arabia, withdrew from Afghanistan, and made Australia its forward base in the Pacific by looking directly at China.
India’s gradual rise into a leading economy has exacerbated rivalries. There are serious military threats from China and Pakistan and internal security concerns. These make new requests on his purse that cannot wait. The march towards a $ 5,000 billion economy has become urgent. This, not only to uplift most Indians to the first world levels of prosperity and well-being, but also to ensure the security of the country.
Almost Post Covid, as the end of 2021 approaches, the Modi government appears determined to aim for double-digit growth in 2022. In preparation, a series of economic reforms are unfolding. The bold step of the three new farm laws has started to pay off. The long-awaited repeal of the retrospective taxation that hit the oil company Cairn and the telecommunications company Vodafone has taken place. In the aftermath, reforms to financially ease the telecommunications sector were so practical and dramatic that a near collapse turned into green optimism.
Badly postponed banks arrived, even as non-performing assets swelled to Rs 10 lakh crore. Some Rs 3-4 lakh crore, mainly due to poorly structured infrastructure loans, were luckily recovered by the lending banks themselves. The rest may involve partial recovery from borrowers with low asset value. But it’s all coming off the books of private banks and PSUs, some of which have changed owners or merged. This sets up a new loan cycle towards better results in the near future.
Exports, supported by government incentives and facilitation, have seen a strong recovery in recent times: rice, cellphones, vehicles, bulletproof vests, software, data storage, components, engines, textiles, other raw materials and Finished products. We are becoming the pharmacy of the world, as demonstrated by the multiplicity of vaccines made in India against Covid-19. There is also a lot of money in this area.
Breaking the tentacles of a powerful import lobby in the field of military procurement, a multitude of joint ventures in the field of armaments are gaining momentum. There are others, involving the manufacture of civil and military aircraft parts for American and European majors. The replacement of the retired Avros, by Airbus transports, will largely be carried out by the Tata Group in JV here. Air India is also on the verge of finally being privatized and returning to the Tata group. The Mk2 Tejas second-generation single-engine combat aircraft program was bolstered with orders for 83 Air Force engines and the acquisition of 100 GE Aviation engines. DRDO has also entered into a JV with Rolls Royce in addition to manufacturing a wide range of aircraft engines. India has also developed 1,500 and 750 hp turbocharged engines for its main battle tank and armored aircraft carriers. The manufacture of ammunition was reorganized in order to get out of the clutches of the communist unions, which for a long time designed artificial slowdowns and blockages.
A large number of military-manufacturing initiatives serve the dual purpose of becoming profitable in Manirbhar, while bypassing the trap of technological slowdowns and embargoes by large military export companies. This is very important in a prevalent feel-good atmosphere.
The armed forces are structurally reorganized to form more integrated combat groups involving the three services. A new rocket management corps is on the anvil. Space warfare capabilities are under development. High altitude war battalions have been raised. The changing face of modern warfare is increasingly recognized. It involves the digital process, drones, armed drones, robotics, missile deployment, stealth technology, electronic and satellite surveillance, space wars, missile shields, cyber warfare.
On “Civvy Street”, LIC is embarking on a massive IPO, even as the Indian stock market is booming as a proof of confidence in the future. A plethora of startups are not only gaining access to mega-funds on the stock exchange, but have also placed India in the upper echelons of the global startup ecosphere.
The Chinese debt crisis is now spreading in broad daylight with the Evergrande real estate group, with more than $ 300 billion in debt, trying to push its way on the verge of default. Analysts have long predicted that the mountain of debt that fueled Chinese growth, as it did during America’s boom years, is unsustainable. The difference is that the United States has the world’s trust behind it, but China does not.
Although China does everything possible to control the financial and social fallout, it will always be very concerned about limiting the damage. Abroad, the Chinese being paid for assets seized in countries at risk is also far from sufficient.
India has a good chance of catching up. This will be helped by the constitution of the Quad and other outside followers of the same scenario such as France, Great Britain, Singapore, Vietnam and probably even Russia.
With a 67% approval rating in a recent CNX poll, the current Modi government is still hugely popular. He is therefore expected not only to win most assembly elections, including the UP in 2022, but also the general elections of 2024. Assuming the NDA obtains another majority, it can implement its nationalist economic agenda. until at least 2029. And a 15-year race tends to provide additional continuity as the opposition dies of political hunger.
Side by side, we must continue to make significant gains in diplomacy, foreign affairs, manufacturing, robotics, computer software, start-ups, modern high-yield agriculture, preventive medicine, advanced technologies. High annual growth will end our playing days of Gunga-Din, the water carrier, satisfying the thirst of the developed world. A prosperous, modern, responsible and civilized India must be our identity in the future. It is our duty to realize it and to work on it.