Supported by an increase in the number of consumers upgrading their smartphones after more than a year of pandemic survival, the number of quarterly shipments is expected to cross the 47 million to 49 million unit mark before Covid 2019.
“Compared to 2019, we forecast a potential growth of 6-10% in shipments. Consumer demand for recently launched premium flagships is high and OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) are struggling to bypass supply constraints, ”said Prabhu Ram, head of the industry intelligence group. at CyberMedia Research.
His company estimates that the July-September quarter (Q3) will see 50 to 52 million units shipped, up from 47.2 million units two years earlier. The number may be lower than the 54 million units shipped last year, but Ram calls it a “marginal drop in shipments in terms of year over year.” The high numbers last year were also due to a buying spree after the lockdown.
According to some, the July-September quarter – which has historically seen the highest shipments / sales – would have broken the 2020 record without the supply chain issues and delays in launching handsets like the JioPhone Next, the affordable 4G smartphone. of Reliance Industries being developed with Google.
Prachir Singh, senior research analyst at Counterpoint Research, said the company expects 3 million units of Jio Phone Next to hit markets in September. The market-monitoring company estimates handset shipments at around 50 million in the third quarter of 2021, up from 34 million in the previous three months, 53.1 million units a year earlier and 49 million in the third quarter of 2019.
Navkendar Singh, research director at market research firm IDC, expects “a slight increase this year” from the 47 to 48 million units shipped in the third quarter of 2019, but less than the 53.5 million units from last year.
Analysts expect markets to continue momentum as consumer confidence is propelled by increased coronavirus vaccination.
Market monitoring company Canalys forecasts 90 to 95 million shipments between July and December, up from 85 million units during the same period of 2019.
“Sellers will face supply issues and a possible third wave (of the pandemic), which primarily affect aggregate demand, but we believe the impact will be minimal as consumers and brands have become accustomed to similar market conditions, ”said Sanyam Chaurasia. by Canalys.
In fact, handset vendors are overcoming these challenges by relaunching handsets with new chipsets and rolling out promotional offers to meet customer demands. This in turn will clear inventory and increase the number of quarterly sales, market trackers say.
In addition, the Covid-induced economic crisis, more than a year of chipset shortages and import restrictions at airports and seaports in China have crippled the consumer electronics industry. Counterpoint Research expects the year to end with around 190 smartphone launches, up from at least 207 in 2020. There have been 103 launches so far this year.
Rising shipping costs have also led to higher handset prices and most upgrade sales are expected to be in the above Rs 10,000 range. Analysts say those who can afford handsets only below that range have been hit hardest by the pandemic.